Technical View on Nifty, TCS & Nestle

# Nifty

#TCS

# Nestle

​

Disclaimer : Be careful before following an "Anadi Professor" like me. I am least educated with no qualification & I can go 100% wrong. I am still trying to learn stock market for last many years & I still consider myself as a student of Mr. Market. I wish degree's help people to make money in stock market - but that does not happen. Happy trading and investing. Cheers!!!
​

Long Term Portfolio for 5-20 years

​

List of 25 Small & MidCap Stocks - #Stock Market #Equity Research #Performance #Price Action

​

As Mentioned on 3rd Jan, 2015 - Even if one would have made equal allocation to all 25 stocks above, this is how you would have performed. I post what I do, I can be 100% wrong. Do your own research before following me. Being an "ANADI" I just use the information as per my understanding & knowledge, which is too little in comparison to the market. I respect market's, which always supreme.

Link for reference : https://www.facebook.com/groups/profitidea/permalink/769078643178317/

Ultimate Oscillator - a tool for making money with a combination of (9,18,36)

Developed by Larry Williams in 1976. The multiple time frame objective seeks to avoid the pitfalls of other oscillators. Many momentum oscillators surge at the beginning of a strong advance and then form bearish divergence as the advance continues. This is because they are stuck with one time frame. The Ultimate Oscillator attempts to correct this fault by incorporating longer time frames into the basic formula. Williams identified a buy signal is based on a bullish divergence and a sell signal based on a bearish divergence.

The Ultimate Oscillator can be used on intraday, daily, weekly or monthly charts. It is sometimes necessary to adjust the parameters to generate overbought or oversold readings, which are part of the buy and sell signals. Relatively docile stocks or securities may not generate overbought or oversold readings with the default parameters (7,14,28).

To minimise risk, it is better to use a combination of (9,18,36). It is sometimes necessary to lengthen the time frames to reduce sensitivity and the number of signals.

Buy Signal

There are three steps to a buy signal. First, a bullish divergence forms between the indicator and security price. This means the Ultimate Oscillator forms a higher low as price forges a lower low. The higher low in the oscillator shows less downside momentum. Second, the low of the bullish divergence should be below 30. This is to insure that prices are somewhat oversold or at a relative extremity. Third, the oscillator rises above the high of the bullish divergence.

Sell Signal

There are three steps to a sell signal. First, a bearish divergence forms between the indicator and security price. This means the Ultimate Oscillator forms a lower high as price forges a higher high. The lower high in the oscillator shows less upside momentum. Second, the high of the bearish divergence should be above 70. This is to insure that prices are somewhat overbought or at a relative extremity. Third, the oscillator falls below the low of the bearish divergence to confirm a reversal.

Here are some live backtested charts :- 

Nifty

​SBIN

​Relaxo

​Nestle India

​ITC Ltd

​

Hope you found the article and practical understanding useful. Keep reading the "Anadi" like me, if you find something useful. You are most welcome to unfollow me if you don't like it :) 

"The fault, dear investor, is not in our stars—and not in our stocks—but in ourselves...."

Each mistake offers an opportunity to learn from the error and to modify one's approach based on this new information.

A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new. - Albert Einstein

The most used alphabet 'A' doesn't appear in the spelling of 1 to 999
It appears for the first time in 1000 and continues forever.
"Success requires Patience"

Work like you don't need money, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one's watching

Some of the interesting quotes(From the Book "The Dhandho Investor"

1. Mistakes are the best teachers. One does not learn from success.
2. It's easier to learn the lessons when you don't take the hits in your own portfolio. But when you take the hits in your own portfolio, those lessons stay with you for a long time.
3. Life is a journey and the journey is the destination.
4. Heads I win; Tails, I don't lose much.
5. Minimizing downside risk while maximizing the upside is a powerful concept.
6. Take advantage of Wall Street's handicap by seeking out low-risk, high-uncertainty bets.
7. Rapidly changing industries are the enemy of the investor.
8. Margin of Safety – Always!
9. Fear and greed are very much fundamental to the human psyche.
10. Buffett's rule number one and rule number two are worth keeping front and center at all times. [Rule number 1: Don't lose money. Rule number 2: don't forget rule number one.]
11. Investors always overshoot and undershoot.
12. There is no such thing as a value trap. There are investing mistakes.
13. You make money by waiting.
14. The biggest, the single biggest advantage a value investor has is not IQ. It's patience and waiting. Waiting for the right pitch and waiting many years for the right pitch.
15. I would say, the crossover between entrepreneurship in investing and value investing especially is to protect your downside.
16. I think the thing is that every business ought to figure out who their ideal customer is.
17. What is business if not an endeavour to create wealth?
18. We have all been taught that earning high rates of return requires taking on greater risks. But if an investor can make virtually risk-free bets with outsized rewards, and keep making the bets over and over, the results are stunning.
19. If you went to a horse race track and you were offered 90% odds of a 20 times return and a 10% chance of losing your money, would you take that bet? Heck Yes! You'd make that bet all day long, and it would make sense to bet a very large portion of your net worth with those spectacular odds. This is not a risk-free bet, but it is a very low-risk, high-return bet. Heads, I win; Tails, I don't lose much!
20. [On a successful motel investing strategy] The formula is simple: fixate on keeping costs as low as possible, charge lower rates than all competitors, drive up the occupancy, and maximize the free cash flow.
21. It's all about 'Few Bets, Big Bets, Infrequent Bets.' And it's all about only participating in coin tosses where 'Heads, I win; tails, I don't lose much!'
22. [On Virgin Atlantic] if you can start a business that requires a $200 million 747 jumbo jet and a boatload of employees in a tightly regulated industry for virtually no capital, then virtually any business that you want to start can be gotten off the ground with minimal capital. All you need to do is replace capital with creative thinking and solutions.
23. We begin by eliminating all businesses that are either not simple businesses or fall squarely outside our circle of competence.
24. Capitalism is greed driven… Capitalists strive hard to capitalize on any opportunity to make outsize profits. The irony is that, in that pursuit, they usually destroy all outsized profits.
25. Anytime we are trying to compute odds for the way the future of a given business is likely to unfold, it is, at best, an approximation. We try to adjust for this by ascribing conservative odds.
26. Investing is just like gambling. It's all about odds.
27. Looking out for mispriced betting opportunities and betting heavily when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor is the ticket to wealth.
28. Arbitrage is a powerful construct and a fundamental tool in the arsenal of any value investor. With arbitrage, we get decent returns with virtually no risk.
29. Sniffing out an available arbitrage opportunity is what prompts entrepreneurs to embark on journeys that have lead to the creation of compelling businesses.
30. Most of the top-ranked business schools around the world do not understand the fundamentals of margin of safety.
31. Most of the time, assets trade hands at or above their intrinsic value. The key, however, is to wait patiently for that super-fast pitch down the center.
32. It is during the times of extreme distress and pessimism that rationality goes out the window and prices of certain assets go well below their underlying intrinsic value. Extreme distress can be caused by macro-events like 9/11 or the Cuban missile crisis. Or they can be company specific.
33. We cannot predict which asset classes are likely to get distressed next. However, if we only focus on a single asset class of stocks, that encompasses thousands of businesses.
34. Wall Street could not distinguish between risk and uncertainty, and it got confused between the two. Savvy investors like Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham have been taking advantage of Mr. Market's handicap for decades with spectacular results.
35. For me, any sort of tech investment is a very fast five-second pass as they tend to be unpredictable, rapidly changing businesses.
36. The durability of technology moats is many times an oxymoron.
37. I always enjoy reverse engineering Warren Buffett's investments.
38. Invest in Businesses with Durable Moats. As my mom always said, 'Time is the best healer!'
39. I am very reticent to take permanent losses of capital. Buffett's rule number one and rule number two are worth keeping front and center at all times.
40. I am not Warren Buffett, I don't have a 300 IQ.
41. Unlike brain surgery, in investing you can be wrong 40% of the time and still do fine.
42. Buffett says, 'I am a better investor because I am a businessman and I am a better businessman because I am a better investor.' You need the same skills in investing as when you are an entrepreneur.
43. The good news in investing is there are no HR problems. If there are no humans, there are no problems!
44. All industries work with change but you should ideally be investing in businesses with a low rate of change, not a high rate of change.
45. I was lucky that my father ran a whole bunch of businesses, started, grew and bankrupted them. Many of these businesses were very highly leveraged. My father was always optimistic and he was maximizing leverage on the business. But they would blow up because there was no stability in them.
46. It is desirable to learn vicariously from other people's failures, but it gets much more firmly seared in when they are your own.
47. Traditional airlines are a losing proposition because of various structural issues — your pricing is set by your dumbest competitor, your costs are subject to a duopoly of airplane manufacturers, a duopoly of engine manufacturers, and a duopoly of maintenance guys and all of them can get whatever they want from you. On top of it, your entire workforce is unionised on every front. You don't have any leeway to control cost.
48. I am not bouncing up and down with stock prices. I don't even know what the markets or my stock did today. All of that is just irrelevant.
49. John Templeton used to say that there is no investment manager who is going to be right more than two times out of three.
50. You are always better off buying a business that has a lot of future growth in it because you can hold it for a long time.
51. We like to hold cash so we do not miss out on any long-term opportunities.
52. Buffett says if he could forecast Google's revenues and cash flows at a particular price, he will consider buying it. His problem is that he can't forecast the revenues and cash flows.
53. We will never have another Warren. I think Warren is a very unique person.
54. I believe the best things about Warren have nothing to do with investing. I think, most of the great things I've taken from Warren have more to do with life than investing.
55. Warren pays attention to intangibles, but Ben Graham was very much a tangible guy.
56. When you look at a business, look at it in a broader context of how it fits into the world. And sometimes, if you can see it in a light that the world is not seeing it in, that can give you an edge.
57. [On Charlie Munger saying 'you have 3 choices, yes, no or too difficult.] That's right. And 98% is too difficult.
58. What you want is a business that has a deep moat with lots of piranha in it and that's getting deeper by the day. That's a great business.
59. Charlie Munger likes to say that you don't make money when you buy stocks. And you don't make money when you sell stocks. You make money by waiting.
60. All investment managers' miseries stem from the inability to sit alone in a room and do nothing.
61. I think that the way the investment business is set up, it's actually set up the wrong way. The correct way to set it up is to have gentlemen of leisure, who go about their leisurely tasks, and when the world is severely fearful is when they put their leisurely task aside and go to work. That would be the ideal way to set up the investment business.
62. People think that entrepreneurs take risk. And they get rewarded because they take risk. In reality, entrepreneurs do everything they can to minimize risk. They are not interested in taking risk. They want free lunches and they go after free lunches.
63. Entrepreneurs are great at dealing with uncertainty and also very good at minimizing risk. That's the classic great entrepreneur.
64. My experiences as a businessman have very direct, long-term positive impacts on me as an investor, because when I'm looking at an investment, I now look at it like the way I looked at my first business, which is, the first thing I'm looking at is, how can I lose money on this? And can I absolutely minimize my downside? The up sides will take care of themselves. It's the downsides that one needs to worry about.
65. The only way one should buy stocks is if you understand the underlying business. You stay within the circle of competence. You buy businesses you understand. If you understand the business, you understand what they're worth. And that's the only reason you are to buy a stock.
66. The average Chinese company has three sets of [accounting] books. You know, one for the government and one for the owner's wife and one for the owner's mistress. And so the problem you have is you don't know which set of books you're looking at. [In April 2010]
67. [On not needing to meeting company CEO's.] Not being mesmerized by charisma will probably help you.
68. [In 2010] I have an eye out on the markets, but there's just not a whole lot of value presently. But value can show up tomorrow, for example. So we're not in a hurry. Happy to have a leisurely lifestyle and wait for the game to come to us.
69. You have to make sure that your losers are few and far between.
70. There are so many good ideas around. You don't need to create your own ideas – you can clone them.
71. People who knew Sam Walton would tell you this was not a very brilliant guy. But what he did was he spent an incredible amount of time in his competitors stores… He was looking at every single thing his competitors did every single time.
72. Everything that Microsoft has had any kind of success with has been cloned.
73. [Burger King versus McDonalds carefully choosing sites.] Burger King has two guys to figure out locations and all they do is basically go out and put Burger King's near McDonalds.
74. [On his practice of cloning.] I have nothing new to share. All I'm going to give you is old handed ideas from other people.
75. I started to apply Buffett's approach in 1994 to investing… I had about a $1 million in cash at the time. And I did really well… I had something like 75% annualized returns [In the beginning].
76. Warren Buffett does not delegate any part of the investment process. He does not have analysts.
77. I just wanted to clone what Buffett did.
78. You have to keep learning because world keeps changing and competitors keep learning.
    

https://www.facebook.com/varun.profitidea

https://www.facebook.com/profitidea

www.profitidea.in/education

Eat healthy live healthy. Eating healthy today, keeps the Doctor away!

​

Monsanto India Limited (MIL) is a subsidiary of the Monsanto Company; US based global biotech food major. The company focuses on maize and agricultural productivity. The company is engaged in the business of production and sale of agricultural inputs, which includes chemicals and hybrid seeds. It has a chemical production unit at Silvassa, hybrid seeds processing and drying units at Hyderabad and breeding stations at Bangalore and Hyderabad. During the FY11, the company's hybrid seeds processing and drying operations at Bellary and Eluru shifted to Hyderabad. MIL has two segments viz seeds and traits and agricultural productivity. The seeds and traits segment consists of the Company's seeds and traits business and genetic technology platforms, which includes biotechnology, breeding and genomics. The agricultural productivity segment consists primarily of crop protection products and residential lawn-and-garden herbicide products.

The revenue distribution of the company in these segments is as follows:

​​As seen in the pie chart MIL generates majority (73%) of its revenue from Seeds and Traits Business.In the year 2011 they launches 3 new product in their maize business viz DKC 9108 for the spring market in the North, DKC 9106 for the Kharif market in Punjab and DKC 8101 for the Kharif season in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. There was a reduction in exports and bulk sale by 80% as a result of lower exports to South East Asia.

Public Private Partnership (PPP):
Through their PPP with Governments of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Odisha and Karnataka they enhanced the yields and incomes of ~ 9 lacs small and marginal tribal farmers. They also launched a pioneering customer connect initiative e – Dr. DeKalb Farm Care (DDFC), a mobile based farmer advisory service.

Business Units, Products and Revenue Share:

Some highlights on numbers:- 

​

Monsanto came in India 50 years ago and was engaged in business of pharmaceuticals and chemicals. It then made Aspirin and chemicals for rubber tyres.

The company, however, discontinued all other businesses and currently focuses only on agrochemical business.

The parent has set up a research and development (R&D) center in Bangalore, which houses around 100 scientists. This R&D base which also does its research in bio-informatics is expected to become R&D hub for Asia.

Parent company

The parent company was incorporated in the year 1901. Almost after a century, Monsanto was merged with Pharmacia & Upjohn globally, in 55 countries, to form Pharmacia Corporation (PC). In October, 2000 PC made a partial initial public offering (IPO) of 15 % of its holding to enable the listing of Monsanto as a stand alone company, focused entirely on agriculture.

This made it a 'Century Old Brand New' company.

This company now works with a mission of 'delivering products and solution to all the food producers and fiber needs for human growth along with conversing natural resources and improving the environment.

The parent company has its single focus on agriculture business. It exited from pharma and chemical business to focus only on agrochemical business.

The feature of this company is now:

Leading provider of agriculture products to farmers.
Its unique platform helps them to provide integrated solutions to:

Improve farm productivity.
Reduce cost of farming.

Its two key biz of operations are ;

Agrochemical productivity.
Seeds and genomics.

Pursue goals that drive value creation for 'farmers' and its 'shareowners.'
15000++ employees worldwide.

Its R&D center in St. Louis, USA was set up in 1994 with the state of the art facility on over 180 acres of land. It has 2100 employees in R&D (including doctors, etc) and has 250 laboratories. It has 100 growth chambers.

The company invests over $ 500 million in R&D every year.

The global R&D focuses on:

Biotech and chemical discovery
Molecular breeding
Breeding and testing

Its customer focus technology platform includes:

Wed management
Pest Management
Grain yield
Crop productivity
Feed, food and fiber
Plant protiens

The company claims to have integrated functions, identified bottlenecks and created solutions resulting in better and faster sources of value creation.

Global agrochemical biz

There is a great scope for the agrochemical business due to the following reasons:-

The current food production will be inadequate to satisfy the growing demands of the future. It is expected that while the population will be higher by 30 % in 2020, the food demand would increase by 75 % from the current levels.

New land resources for development is nearly exhausted.

And current farming practices are not sustainable. Thus there will be demand for new technology in the agrochemical business and this business is bound to grow rapidly.

Monsanto has always lead the agrochemical company.

Product innovation are in the form of:

• Acetanilides
• Roundup
• Bio technology
• Genomic

Marketing innovation are in the form of:

• Roundup price elasticity (Roundup is sold in 125 countries).
• Supply agreement (with Dow, Dupont, etc)
• Seed acquisition (invested $ 6 billion in seed acquisition)
• Growing licenses
• Down stream alliances

Competition:
The company faces competition from BASF, Syngenta, Bayer, Dow, Dupont. However, Monsonto claims to have grown with the highest growth rate in the industry in the recent past. It further hopes to become a leading player in the biotech segment.

Thus Monsanto is different from other companies because:

• It has strong chemistry business (products like Roundup, Harness, Pgilac)
• It has strong seed business (products like Asgrow, Hartz, Dekalb)
• Growing in Traits business which helps farmers to manage insect pressure better.
• It is said to be Coca-Cola of agrochemical business 

Monsanto has right assets and capability in place to succeed. It has the right strategy and focus. It is the organization which has aligned with growth strategy and has created a 'winning' environment.

Indian Integration
Monsanto India was the first company in India to take a bold decision of integrating its Indian agrochemical operation. This:

Is in line with global realignment
Confirms the parent's commitment to Indian farmers and shareholders.

Currently it is a premier agrochemical input company in India.

The company's position in the Indian industry:

• It is a company with access to robust product pipeline.
• It is a company committed to market development and farmers value.
• It is a company, which is committed to long-term and sustainable growth in India.

Future

Fundamentals for growth

• Stable macroeconomics indications.
• Continued economic liberalization.
• Growing population (expected to grow at 1.5% to 1.8% PA)
• Increasing personal income levels.
• Need to grow 100 million tonne (50% more than current levels) more food by 2020 to meet the growing population demands.
• Need to increase food productivity:
• New technology / agrochemical inputs hold the key. This will ensure increase in productivity.
• Monsanto India is a leading provider of seeds, herbicides and Traits.

Mission:
To provide unique products and solution that will help enhance agrochemical yields and improve enviornment quality in a sustainable way resulting in growth of the company's revenues and incomes.

The company has 5 operating principles. They are:

• All employees to take the ownership of the company's success.
• Deliver highest quality product and technology.
• Building strong relationship (with dealers, customers, farmers, etc)
• Creating a great place to work.
• Conducting itself with integrity.

3 Phase Buying Strategies Suggested [Always buy in SIP ways]

ü  1st Phase  : Buy at the current price range Rs 2800 – 2900 [30% of investment]

ü  2nd Phase : Add if the price falls down to Rs 2100-2200 [30% of investment]

ü  3rd Phase  : Add if the price falls down to Rs 1400-1500 [40% of investment]

I just bought on my own research :) Risk is always associated in stock market - do your own study before investing :) Will you buy the stock? I don't know. It's really up to you. Moreover, you can rationalize whatever you choose :)